Ominous signs for a flu vaccine shortage next winter? Already?

Describing a scene reminiscent of frenzied calling to Ticketmaster for hard-to-get concert tickets, the Allentown Morning Call reports that Sanofi Pasteur confirmed pre-orders for all 50 million doses of its 2006 flu vaccine inventory, selling out in less than 8 hours. Yes, that's for the next flu season, still 9 months away.

The story explains,

"Sanofi, the only maker taking orders directly from doctors, hospitals and other buyers, doubled the phone lines and online ordering capacity, 'but the outpouring far exceeded our expectations,' [a spokesman] said. Normally, the vaccinemaker receives 1,500 calls a day, but on prebooking day, Lavenda said the number of callers trying to get through reached 400,000 and online hits surged 500 percent.

'We can make 50 million doses, maybe a bit more, but the demand far exceeds that. … We feel bad, but we can't stretch our capacity to meet the entire nation's needs.'"

Before we start heralding a repeat of the 2004 supply problems, it's worth noting that (barring another Chiron debacle) the flu vaccine supply outlook is far healthier this time around. Sanofi is one of four currently licensed manufacturers in the U.S., with a fifth likely to join the market by fall.

"Avian Flu Vaccine 100% Effective"

As reported by Voice of America, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh have developed a genetically engineered avian flu vaccine that was 100% effective protecting mice and chicken against the virus. Their results are forthcoming in J. Virology.

Only time - a long time - will tell how important a development this is. We needn't start lining up at our doctor's office anytime soon for this vaccine, though, given that human trials have yet to begin. Moreover, it's anyone's guess how closely 'the' potential pandemic strain (if there is one) will resemble those currently circulating in Asia and eastern Europe, a factor that will greatly influence the benefits (if any) of vaccines now in development. Nevertheless, one can only view this story as a positive development, as vaccine technologies which will be valuable well beyond avian flu are continually refined.

NY Times Calls for Further Expansion of Flu Vaccine Recommendations

Responding to ACIP's recommendation earlier this week calling for flu vaccination for 2-5 year olds, the New York Times this weekend suggested expanding the recommendation ever further, increasing the production capacity potentially necessary if or when a pandemic arrives...

"Our only qualm is to wonder whether even more children should be vaccinated to protect us all from the flu bugs circulating in elementary, middle and high schools. The advisory committee seems to have limited its recommendation at least in part because of concerns that the troubled vaccine industry may not be able to meet a much higher demand. But in the long run, it would make sense to ramp up production capacity and vaccinate virtually everyone as a prelude to preparing for mass vaccinations should an influenza pandemic strike."

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